Eleven year follow-up of 300 young opioid addicts

A cohort of 300 young opioid addicts (203 male and 97 female) attending the City of Copenhagen Drug Treatment Service (200) or the Nordvang Hospital (100) for first-time treatment during 1973 was personally followed up in 1980 and 1984. In both studies about 90% were traced. Outcome was classified on a four-step scale according to current drug status and occupational status. In 1984 24% of the cohort were classified in the best outcome class while 26% were dead, yielding an average mortality of 2.4% per year. Sixteen per cent were classified as substance users, including persons mostly abusing alcohol or tranquilizers. In contrast to our predictions in 1980 the number of persons achieving stable abstinence does not turn out to be steadily increasing with time. The number of active drug addicts declines mainly because they die, not because they achieve abstinence. According to more strict criteria less than 20% would be classified as truly recovered. Another 5 - 10% achieve some unstable abstinence. The long-term prognosis seems to be highly unfavourable for the study population as a whole.