Integrating human behavior and snake ecology with agent-based models to predict snakebite in high risk landscapes

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Ecological Modeling
• Tropical Medicine

Background:

• Snakebite envenoming affects over 1.8 million people annually, disproportionately impacting poor farmers in tropical regions.
• Existing research often overlooks the complex spatio-temporal dynamics and integrated human-snake behavioral patterns driving snakebite incidence.
• Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective prevention and intervention strategies in snakebite hotspots.

Purpose of the Study:

• To characterize snakebite mechanisms and identify risk factors using a novel agent-based modeling (ABM) approach.
• To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of snakebite risk by integrating human and snake behavioral patterns.
• To validate the model's predictive power using epidemiological data from Sri Lanka, a known snakebite hotspot.

Main Methods:

• Employed a bottom-up agent-based modeling (ABM) simulation approach, parameterized with data from Sri Lanka.
• Incorporated six distinct snake species with varying distributions and habitat preferences.
• Modeled three farmer types (rice, tea, rubber) with distinct, climate-driven working schedules to simulate human-snake encounters.

Main Results:

• Snakebite incidence is predominantly climatically driven, with significant contributions from farmer work schedules and the presence of specific snake species.
• Unique encounter rates arise from the interplay between snake species' habitat preferences and farmers' activity patterns across different landcover types and locations.
• The ABM successfully explained observed temporal patterns of snakebite incidence and the relative contribution of different snake species to bites.

Conclusions:

• The agent-based model provides a robust framework for understanding the complex spatio-temporal drivers of snakebite risk.
• Findings highlight the importance of integrating climatic, ecological, and human behavioral factors for accurate risk assessment.
• The model is transferable and can inform targeted interventions and future research in other high-burden snakebite regions.