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Using gradient Forest to predict climate response and adaptation in Cork oak.

Mathieu Vanhove1, Francisco Pina-Martins1, Ana Cristina Coelho2

  • 1Faculdade de Ciências, Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.

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|January 23, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Climate change threatens cork oak (Quercus suber L.) populations. Landscape genomics reveals genetic adaptation to climate, identifying vulnerable areas in southwestern Iberia and northern Morocco for conservation efforts.

Keywords:
Gradient ForestQuercus suber Lclimate changelandscape genomicslocal adaptation

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Genetics
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Climate change poses a significant threat to locally adapted species, including the keystone cork oak (Quercus suber L.).
  • Understanding environmental influences on species distribution is crucial for developing resilient populations and effective forest management strategies.
  • Landscape genomics offers a powerful approach to investigate population structure and adaptation in response to environmental variables.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the population structure and ecological adaptation of cork oak across the Mediterranean Basin using landscape genomics.
  • To identify genomic regions associated with local adaptation to climatic variables.
  • To predict how genetic composition may shift under future climate scenarios and pinpoint vulnerable regions.

Main Methods:

  • Genotyping by sequencing (GBS) was employed to generate 2,583 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers from 81 cork oak individuals across 17 sites.
  • Nearest neighbor haplotype coancestry was used to assess population structure along climatic gradients.
  • Gradient forest, a nonlinear multivariate association method, was applied to model gene-environment relationships and project spatial predictions.

Main Results:

  • A weak population structure was detected, primarily correlating with an east-west climatic gradient across the Mediterranean.
  • Genomic regions potentially involved in local adaptation to temperature and precipitation were identified.
  • The gradient forest model highlighted south-western Iberia and northern Morocco as areas most sensitive to climate change impacts on cork oak genetic composition.

Conclusions:

  • Landscape genomics effectively identified adaptive genetic variation in cork oak populations across the Mediterranean.
  • Specific regions, notably south-western Iberia and northern Morocco, are identified as critical areas for conservation due to climate change sensitivity.
  • These findings provide a foundational assessment for developing targeted management and conservation strategies for cork oak resilience.