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Updated: Nov 20, 2025

Remote Laboratory Management: Respiratory Virus Diagnostics
Published on: April 6, 2019
A compartmental epidemic model incorporating probable cases to model COVID-19 outbreak in regions with limited
1Mærsk McKinney Møller Institute, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark.
Abstract:
We propose a new compartmental epidemic model taking into account people who have symptoms with no confirmatory laboratory testing (probable cases). We prove well-posedness of the model and provide an explicit expression for the basic reproduction number (R0). We use the model together with an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in West Java province in Indonesia and the state of Michigan in the USA, where laboratory testing capacities are limited. Based on our estimation, the value of Rt is higher when the probable cases are taken into account. This correction can be used by decision and policy makers when considering re-opening policy and evaluation of public measures.
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