Predictive Model of Type 2 Diabetes Remission after Metabolic Surgery in Chinese Patients

Metabolic surgery is an effective treatment for type 2 diabetes (T2D). At present, there is no authoritative standard for predicting postoperative T2D remission in clinical use. In general, East Asian patients with T2D have a lower body mass index and worse islet function than westerners. We aimed to look for clinical predictors of T2D remission after metabolic surgery in Chinese patients, which may provide insights for patient selection.

Patients with T2D who underwent metabolic surgery at the Third Xiangya Hospital between October 2008 and March 2017 were enrolled. T2D remission was defined as an HbA1c level below 6.5% and an FPG concentration below 7.1 mmol/L for at least one year in the absence of antidiabetic medications.

(1) Independent predictors of short-term T2D remission (1-2 years) were age and C-peptide area under the curve (C-peptide AUC); independent predictors of long-term T2D remission (4-6 years) were C-peptide AUC and fasting plasma glucose (FPG). (2) The optimal cutoff value for C-peptide AUC in predicting T2D remission was 30.93 ng/ml, with a specificity of 67.3% and sensitivity of 75.8% in the short term and with a specificity of 61.9% and sensitivity of 81.5% in the long term, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves are 0.674 and 0.623 in the short term and long term, respectively. (3) We used three variables (age, C-peptide AUC, and FPG) to construct a remission prediction score (ACF), a multidimensional 9-point scale, along which greater scores indicate a better chance of T2D remission. We compared our scoring system with other reported models (ABCD, DiaRem, and IMS). The ACF scoring system had the best distribution of patients and prognostic significance according to the ROC curves.

Presurgery age, C-peptide AUC, and FPG are independent predictors of T2D remission after metabolic surgery. Among these, C-peptide AUC plays a decisive role in both short- and long-term remission prediction, and the optimal cutoff value for C-peptide AUC in predicting T2D remission was 30.93 ng/ml, with moderate predictive values. The ACF score is a simple reliable system that can predict T2D remission among Chinese patients.