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SI epidemic model applied to COVID-19 data in mainland China
J Demongeot1, Q Griette2,3, P Magal2,3
1Department of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, AGEIS EA7407, 38700 La Tronche, France.
Abstract:
The article is devoted to the parameters identification in the SI model. We consider several methods, starting with an exponential fit to the early cumulative data of SARS-CoV2 in mainland China. The present methodology provides a way to compute the parameters at the early stage of the epidemic. Next, we establish an identifiability result. Then we use the Bernoulli-Verhulst model as a phenomenological model to fit the data and derive some results on the parameters identification. The last part of the paper is devoted to some numerical algorithms to fit a daily piecewise constant rate of transmission.
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