Identify the Early Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Acute Paraquat Poisoning

Paraquat is a widely used nonselective and fast-acting contact herbicide worldwide. This study identified the early predictor of mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning.

Twenty-nine patients with acute paraquat poisoning admitted at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from January 2018 to August 2020 were included in this study. The early predictor of mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning based on the blood tests was identified by correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses.

15 of the 29 patients died after poisoning. Compared to the survivors, the neutrophilic granulocyte ratio, leukocyte count, ALB, and Crea of the nonsurvivors were significantly higher with p value < 0.05, while the lymphocyte ratio and eGFR(MDRD) of the nonsurvivors were remarkably lower with p value < 0.01. Moreover, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was remarkably upregulated in the nonsurvivors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the neutrophilic granulocyte ratio, lymphocyte ratio, leukocyte count, ALB, Crea, eGFR(MDRD), and NLR to predict the mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning was 0.8905 (95% CI: 0.7589-1.022), 0.8643 (95% CI: 0.7244-1.004), 0.8500 (95% CI: 0.7133-0.9867), 0.7286 (95% CI: 0.5338-0.9233), 0.8167 (95% CI: 0.6620-0.9713), 0.8714 (95% CI: 0.7330-1.010), and 0.8667 (95% CI: 0.7277-1.006), respectively. More interestingly, we also evaluated the diagnostic values of the different combinations of six blood test biomarkers by logistic regression analysis. According to the results of the logistic regression analysis, the AUCs for the combination of the neutrophilic granulocyte ratio, leukocyte count, and eGFR(MDRD) were the largest with 0.986 (95% CI: 0.952-1), and the sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 100%.

This study demonstrated that the combination of the neutrophilic granulocyte ratio, leukocyte count, and eGFR(MDRD) could serve as an ideal early predictor of mortality in patients with acute paraquat poisoning. However, further research is needed to draw a clear conclusion.