Predicting the mortality of smoking attributable to cancer in Qingdao, China: A time-series analysis

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death and disability from cancer in China. To provide a scientific basis for tobacco control strategies and measures, this study investigated cancer deaths attributed to smoking from 2005 to 2017 and predicted mortality trends from 2018 to 2020 in Qingdao. We used time series analysis to evaluate the number of deaths attributed to smoking among residents over 35 years old in Qingdao and predicted mortality trends. The number of cancer deaths attributed to smoking in Qingdao from 2005 to 2016 was between 170 and 407, showing an upward trend and a certain periodicity. The best model is the ARIMA (2,1,0)×(3,1,0)12, with the lowest BIC (6.640) and the highest stationary R2 (0.500). The predicted cancer deaths curve attributed to smoking in 2017 is consistent with the actual curve, with an average relative error of 5.74%. Applying this model to further predict the number of cancer deaths attributed to smoking in Qingdao from January 2018 to December 2020, the predicted results were 5,249, 5,423 and 6,048, respectively. The findings emphasized the need to further strengthen tobacco control measures to reduce the burden of disease caused by tobacco.