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An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model forecasts COVID-19 onset risk and identifies spatiotemporal
Wenzhong Shi1, Chengzhuo Tong2, Anshu Zhang2
1Smart Cities Research Institute, Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, 999077, Hong Kong, China. lswzshi@polyu.edu.hk.
Abstract:
It is important to forecast the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset and thereby evaluate how effectively the city lockdown measure could reduce this risk. This study is a first comprehensive, high-resolution investigation of spatiotemporal heterogeneities on the effect of the Wuhan lockdown on the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset in all 347 Chinese cities. An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model was developed to predict the COVID-19 onset risk under two scenarios (i.e., with and without the Wuhan lockdown). The Wuhan lockdown, compared with the scenario without lockdown implementation, in general, delayed the arrival of the COVID-19 onset risk peak for 1-2 days and lowered risk peak values among all cities. The decrease of the onset risk attributed to the lockdown was more than 8% in over 40% of Chinese cities, and up to 21.3% in some cities. Lockdown was the most effective in areas with medium risk before lockdown.
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