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Economic disasters and aggregate investment.

Bruno Ćorić1,2, Vladimir Šimić1,2

  • 1Faculty of Economics, University of Split, Cvite Fiskovića 5, 21000 Split, Croatia.

Empirical Economics
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Economic disasters, rare but severe crises, significantly reduce long-term aggregate investment. Normal economic fluctuations have a much smaller impact on investment decisions.

Keywords:
Aggregate investmentEconomic disastersEmpirical analysisOutput volatility

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Macroeconomics
  • Financial Crises

Background:

  • The 2007-2008 global financial crisis heightened interest in the macroeconomic effects of severe economic downturns, termed economic disasters.
  • Existing research suggests the likelihood of economic disasters influences the long-term impact of output volatility on investment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the long-run relationship between economic disasters and aggregate investment.
  • To provide empirical evidence on the impact of infrequent, large-scale crises on investment.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of post-World War II data from numerous developing and developed countries.
  • Application of panel data analysis techniques.

Main Results:

  • A statistically significant negative relationship was found between the probability of economic disasters and aggregate investment.
  • The probability of experiencing economic disasters negatively affects long-run aggregate investment.

Conclusions:

  • Infrequent but extremely large economic crises (economic disasters) have a detrimental long-run effect on aggregate investment.
  • The impact of 'normal' output volatility on aggregate investment is comparatively minor.