Extending the Capture Map Concept to Estimate Discrete and Risk-Based Streamflow Depletion Potential

A popular and contemporary use of numerical groundwater models is to estimate the discrete relation between groundwater extraction and surface-water/groundwater exchange. Previously, the concept of a "capture map" has been put forward as a means to effectively summarize this relation for decision-making consumption. While capture maps have enjoyed success in the environmental simulation industry, they are deterministic, ignoring uncertainty in the underlying model. Furthermore, capture maps are not typically calculated in a manner that facilitates analysis of varying combinations of extraction locations and/or reaches. That is, they are typically constructed with focus on a single reach or group of reaches. The former of these limitations is important for conveying risk to decision makers and stakeholders, while the latter is important for decision-making support related to surface-water management, where future foci may include reaches that were not the focus of the original capture analysis. Herein, we use the concept of a response matrix to generalize the theory of the capture-map approach to estimate spatially discrete streamflow depletion potential. We also use first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation techniques with the concept of "risk shifting" to place capture maps and streamflow depletion potential in a stochastic, risk-based framework. Our approach is demonstrated for an integrated groundwater/surface-water model of the lower San Antonio River, Texas, USA.