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How inter-state amity and animosity complement migration networks to drive refugee flows: A multi-layer network
Justin Schon1, Jeffrey C Johnson2
1University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, United States of America.
Plos One
|January 27, 2021
Summary
Global refugee flows are driven by migration networks and inter-state relations, with network structures evolving over time. Strategic rivalries and geopolitical shifts, like the Arab Spring, significantly impact these patterns.
Area of Science:
- International Relations
- Sociology
- Network Analysis
Background:
- Refugee flows are traditionally explained by security needs, with geopolitical factors increasingly recognized.
- Existing models may overlook structural network interdependencies influencing migration patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the drivers and evolution of the global refugee flow network from 1991-2016.
- To differentiate between network-based and inter-state relationship drivers of refugee movements.
- To assess the impact of geopolitical events on refugee flow dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Multiple Regression-Quadratic Assignment Procedure (MR-QAP) for dyadic hypothesis testing.
- K-means clustering and multi-dimensional scaling for variable and temporal analysis.
- Longitudinal analysis of global refugee flow data (1991-2016).
Main Results:
- Support found for migration networks and inter-state amity/animosity as key drivers.
- Contiguity's influence on refugee flows has decreased over time.
- Strategic rivalry positively correlates with refugee flows; the network structure shifted post-Arab Spring (2011) and drivers shifted post-2012.
Conclusions:
- Refugee flow networks are shaped by both established migration routes and evolving inter-state dynamics.
- Geopolitical events significantly alter the structure and drivers of global refugee movements.
- Social network analysis provides valuable insights into international migration and relations.
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