Forecasting the Patients Flow at Pediatric Emergency Departments

Emergency departments (EDs) have a key role in the public health system. They are facing a constant growth of their volume. Forecasting the daily volume is a major tool to adapt the allocation of resources. In this paper, we focus on pediatric EDs. They are specific by their strong seasonal variation, determined by the academic pace. The main contribution of this paper is to integrate the effects of this pace to the annual seasonality. We also tried out to improve the daily forecasting by forecasting the week means of the flow first. We trained and tested these models specifically on the pediatric EDs of Paris university hospital trust. For the eight pediatric EDs gathered, on average for the years 2016 to 2019, we forecasted the daily volume with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 6.6% for a 7-days forecasting, 7.1% for a 14-days forecasting and 7.6% for a 28-days forecasting. Account of rhythm allows a performance increase, with results respectively 7%, 10.1% and 8.4% better relatively to a baseline model based on a periodic regression on the weeks.