Energy recovery potential from incineration using municipal solid waste based on multi-scenario analysis in Beijing

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Waste Management
• Energy Recovery

Background:

• Rapid growth in municipal solid waste (MSW) generation necessitates effective management strategies.
• Waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration offers a solution for waste volume reduction and electricity generation.
• Beijing's 2020 MSW Source Separation Regulation highlights the need for improved waste management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact of varying MSW source separation levels and compositions on WTE incineration energy recovery potential in Beijing.
• To predict MSW generation amounts and assess energy recovery under different management scenarios for 2025.
• To evaluate the economic viability of WTE incineration based on energy generation costs.

Main Methods:

• Utilized grey differential equation models (GM (1,1) and KGM (1,n)) to predict MSW generation.
• Established six scenarios considering different MSW compositions, lower heating values (LHV), and varying degrees of source separation and recycling.
• Calculated electricity generation per ton of waste and associated costs under these scenarios.

Main Results:

• Predicted MSW generation for Beijing in 2025 is 11,505,400 tons with a 2.255% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
• Electricity generated per ton of waste ranges from 0.336 to 1.114 MWh/ton, increasing with source separation and food waste removal.
• The lowest electricity generation cost is estimated at 977.60 yuan/MWh.

Conclusions:

• Enhanced MSW source separation and targeted waste removal (e.g., food waste) significantly increase energy recovery potential from WTE incineration.
• The study provides crucial data for balancing the economic and environmental benefits of WTE incineration strategies.
• Findings offer valuable insights for government policy on municipal solid waste management and source separation implementation.