Spatiotemporal variations of global terrestrial vegetation climate potential productivity under climate change

Evaluating the climate potential productivity (CPP) of terrestrial vegetation is crucial to ascertain the threshold of vegetation productivity, to maximize the utilization of regional climate resources, and to fully display the productivity application level. In this study, the maximum net primary productivity (NPPmax) representing the highest possible productivity of vegetation was calculated using the FLUXNET maximum gross primary productivity (GPPmax) from 177 flux towers. The relationships between NPPmax and a set of climate variables were established using the classification and regression tree (CART) modeling framework. The CART algorithm was used to upscale the CPP to the global scale under the current climate baseline (1980-2018) and future climate scenarios. The spatiotemporal variations in CPP over the globe were analyzed and the impacts of climate factors on it were assessed. The results indicate that global CPPs range from 0 to 2000 g C/m². The tropical rainforest area is the region with the highest CPP, whereas the lowest CPP occurs in arid/semiarid areas. These two regions were identified as the areas with the largest CPP reductions in the future. The findings reveal that CPP shows signs of productivity saturation and that future climate is not conducive to the increases in vegetation productivity in these regions. The increases in average annual temperature, minimum temperature, and solar radiation are beneficial to CPP increase in most parts of the globe under climate change. However, the negative contribution of maximum temperature increase and precipitation reduction to CPP is higher than the positive contribution of the above three rising factors to CPP in tropical and arid/semiarid areas. Our study is important to aid in creating targeted policies for future sustainable development, resource allocation, and vegetation management.