Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 1, 2026

Combining Behavioral Endocrinology and Experimental Economics: Testosterone and Social Decision Making
Published on: March 2, 2011
Leadership or luck? Randomization inference for leader effects in politics, business, and sports
Christopher R Berry1, Anthony Fowler2
1Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Abstract:
Anecdotal evidence suggests that some leaders are more effective than others but observed differences in outcomes between leaders could be attributable to chance variation. To solve this inferential problem, we develop a quantitative test of leader effects that provides more reliable inferences than previous strategies, and we implement the test in the settings of politics, business, and sports. We find significant effects of political leaders, particularly in nondemocracies. We find little evidence that chief executive officers influence the performance of their firms. In addition, we find clear evidence that sports coaches matter for a wide range of outcomes in football, basketball, baseball, and hockey.
Related Concept Videos
Group Design
Fundamental Attribution Error
Randomized Experiments
Simple randomization
Simple...
Bias
In statistics, a sampling bias is created when a sample is collected from a population, and some members of the population are not as likely to be chosen as others (remember, each member...
Impact of Individuals on a Group
Theory of Attribution I: Correspondent Inference Theory

