Effects of a minimum floor Price law on cigarette use in Oakland, California: A static microsimulation model

Tobacco minimum floor price laws (MFPLs) are a non-tax price policy that set a price below which tobacco products cannot be sold, thereby raising prices. Despite their growing interest among policy makers, little is known about the effects of local MFPLs on smoking prevalence or smoking intensity. We aimed to project the impact of a local tobacco MFPL on cigarette smoking prevalence and cigarette smoking intensity in Oakland, California, including detailed analysis of several important subpopulations. We used data collected between April 2017 and December 2019 from the California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the National Youth Tobacco Survey to construct a static microsimulation model representative of Oakland. We projected the impact of MFPLs ranging from $8.00 to $13.00 per pack. All analyses were conducted between 2019 and 2020. With the introduction of an MFPL and assuming 15% policy evasion, mean price paid per pack was projected to increase by $1.05 to $4.69, cigarette smoking prevalence was projected to drop by 0.3% to 0.8%, and smoking intensity was projected to drop by 0.7% to 2.0% among continuing smokers. Total number of cigarettes smoked per month was projected to drop by 246,000 to 734,000 cigarettes, a 3.0% to 9.0% reduction from the current level (8.2 million cigarettes). The greatest reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence were among those aged 12 to 24-years-old, of non-Hispanic black or other race/ethnicity, and living below the federal poverty level. An MFPL in Oakland may substantially reduce cigarette use and target several important subpopulations.