Dengue infection modeling and its optimal control analysis in East Java, Indonesia.

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Public Health

Background:

• Dengue fever remains a significant public health concern globally.
• Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.
• Previous models have not fully incorporated hospitalization dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a mathematical model for dengue fever transmission including hospitalization.
• To estimate key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number (R0), for East Java Province in 2018.
• To investigate optimal control strategies for dengue eradication.

Main Methods:

• Formulation of a compartmental mathematical model for dengue transmission with a hospitalization state.
• Estimation of model parameters using confirmed dengue cases from East Java, Indonesia (2018).
• Analysis of model stability and formulation of an optimal control problem.

Main Results:

• The basic reproduction number for dengue in East Java (2018) was estimated.
• Numerical solutions for the optimal control problem identified effective intervention strategies.
• Model simulations demonstrated the significant impact of prevention and insecticide use.

Conclusions:

• Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into dengue transmission dynamics.
• Integrated control strategies, including personal protection and vector control (insecticide spraying), are essential for reducing dengue incidence.
• The study highlights the potential for mathematical modeling to inform public health interventions against dengue fever.