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Modelling the Relationship between Rainfall and Mental Health Using Different Spatial and Temporal Units.

Matthew Yap1, Matthew Tuson1,2, Berwin Turlach2

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Drought impacts agricultural communities

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Rural Mental Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Drought's impact on agricultural communities' mental health is debated.
  • Previous studies show inconsistent results, potentially due to data aggregation issues.
  • The modifiable areal and temporal unit problems can affect spatiotemporal analyses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between drought and mental health-related emergency department (MHED) presentations.
  • To explore how spatial and temporal data aggregation influences this relationship.
  • To quantify the impact of drought on mental health in Western Australia's Wheat Belt region.

Main Methods:

  • Examined MHED presentations and average daily rainfall in Western Australia's Wheat Belt (2002-2017).
  • Analyzed associations using various spatial aggregations and temporal windows.
  • Applied statistical models to estimate rate ratios for rainfall's impact.

Main Results:

  • Significant variation in results based on data aggregation.
  • Positive association between MHED presentations and rainfall in summer months (RR up to 1.05 per 0.5 mm).
  • Negative association between MHED presentations and rainfall in winter months (RR as low as 0.96 per 0.5 mm).

Conclusions:

  • The association between drought and mental health is quantifiable but small.
  • Effect size is sensitive to spatiotemporal data arrangement.
  • Further research with longer time spans and specific mental health outcomes is recommended.