A Prognostic Prediction Model of Transarterial Radioembolization in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: SNAP-HCC
Joon Yeul Nam1, Yun Bin Lee1, Jeong-Hoon Lee1
1Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, 101, Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03080, Republic of Korea.
Background:
Prognosis prediction in patient with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial radioembolization (TARE) remains difficult. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model to aid in the decision to use TARE.
Methods:
A total of 174 patients in Korea who underwent TARE for HCC as the initial treatment were included. We developed a prediction model for overall survival (OS) based on independent risk factors for OS and validated the model by bootstrap method.
Results:
The median maximal size of the tumors was 8.2 cm, the median number of tumors was 2, and the median albumin level was 4.0 g/dL. Portal vein tumor thrombosis was found in 46.0% (Vp1-3 [39.7%] and Vp4 [6.3%]). Four independent risk factors associated with OS (maximal tumor size, tumor number, albumin, and portal vein tumor thrombosis) were used to develop the SNAP-HCC score. Bootstrap validation of the scoring index determined that the Harrell's c-index for OS was 0.756 (95% confidence interval: 0.729-0.783). Patients grouped based on their SNAP-HCC (scores 0-5) were well discriminated, with significant differences between the groups (all P < 0.05). Patients with SNAP-HCC < 3 showed significantly longer OS than patients with SNAP-HCC ≥ 3 (P < 0.001). The respective survival probabilities at years 1 and 3 were 0.81 and 0.73 in the low-risk (SNAP-HCC < 3) and 0.32 and 0.14 in the high-risk (SNAP-HCC ≥ 3) patients.
Conclusions:
The SNAP-HCC scoring system predicted the outcome of HCC patients undergoing TARE as an initial treatment. This model could be helpful for initial planning the treatment of HCC patients.
