Sensitivity and Specificity of the National Death Index for Multiple Causes of Death in People With HIV

Inaccuracies in cause-of-death information in death certificates can reduce the validity of national death statistics and result in poor targeting of resources to reduce morbidity and mortality in people with HIV. Our objective was to measure the sensitivity, specificity, and agreement between multiple causes of deaths from death certificates obtained from the National Death Index (NDI) and causes determined by expert physician review.

Physician specialists determined the cause of death using information collected from the medical records of 50 randomly selected HIV-infected people who died in San Francisco from July 1, 2016, through May 31, 2017. Using expert review as the gold standard, we measured sensitivity, specificity, and agreement.

The NDI had a sensitivity of 53.9% and a specificity of 66.7% for HIV deaths. The NDI had a moderate sensitivity for non-AIDS-related infectious diseases and non-AIDS-related cancers (70.6% and 75.0%, respectively) and high specificity for these causes (100.0% and 94.7%, respectively). The NDI had low sensitivity and high specificity for substance abuse (27.3% and 100.0%, respectively), heart disease (58.3% and 86.8%, respectively), hepatitis B/C (33.3% and 97.7%, respectively), and mental illness (50.0% and 97.8%, respectively). The measure of agreement between expert review and the NDI was lowest for HIV (κ = 0.20); moderate for heart disease (κ = 0.45) and hepatitis B/C (κ = 0.40); high for non-AIDS-related infectious diseases (κ = 0.76) and non-AIDS-related cancers (κ = 0.72); and low for all other causes of death (κ < 0.35).

Our findings support education and training of health care providers to improve the accuracy of cause-of-death information on death certificates.