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The UK physician workforce: one-third at increased risk of death from COVID-19

Ajay M Verma1, Andrew F Goddard2, Donal O'Donoghue

  • 1Kettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Kettering, UK and chair of the New Consultants Committee, Royal College of Physicians, London, UK ajay.verma@nhs.net.

Clinical Medicine (London, England)
|February 5, 2021
PubMed

Insights

A third of consultant physicians face increased COVID-19 death risk, with one in five having over double the risk. Age, gender, and ethnicity significantly drive this risk, particularly for older male physicians from Black, Asian, and minority ethnic backgrounds.

Area of Science:

  • Medical research
  • Epidemiology
  • Public health

Background:

  • Black, Asian, and minority ethnic (BAME) National Health Service (NHS) staff, comprising 21% of the workforce, experience disproportionately high COVID-19 mortality.
  • Analysis of consultant physicians is crucial to identify those at elevated risk of COVID-19 related fatalities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze data from consultant physicians to identify individuals at increased risk of COVID-19 related death.
  • To understand the demographic and professional factors contributing to COVID-19 mortality risk among physicians.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 13,500 consultant physicians sourced from the Royal College of Physicians.
  • Analyzed data assuming no pre-existing comorbidities to isolate COVID-19 specific risk factors.

Main Results:

  • A significant proportion of consultant physicians face elevated COVID-19 mortality risk: one-third have a hazard ratio (HR) >1, one in five have HR >2, one in 11 have HR >3, and one in 40 have HR >4.
  • Male physicians aged 60 and above exhibit a particularly high risk, with an HR >3.8.
  • Sub-specialties such as cardiology, endocrine and diabetes, gastroenterology, haematology, neurology, and rheumatology show higher risk profiles due to concentrations of older male physicians and Black, Asian, and minority ethnic individuals.

Conclusions:

  • One-third of consultant physicians are at increased risk of COVID-19 related death, with one in five having a hazard ratio greater than 2.
  • Age, gender, and ethnicity are primary drivers of this increased risk.
  • Male consultant physicians over 60, especially those from Black, Asian, and minority ethnic backgrounds, face the highest risk.
Abstract

Keywords:
BAMECOVID-19consultantsdeathphysicians

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