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Validation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM)
Benjamin Yarnoff1,2, Amanda Honeycutt1, Christina Bradley1
1RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
Preventing Chronic Disease
|February 5, 2021
Summary
The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) is a valid tool for public health. This system dynamics model accurately simulates health outcomes and supports intervention planning.
Area of Science:
- Public health simulation modeling
- System dynamics modeling
- Health economics and outcomes research
Background:
- Validating public health models builds confidence in their accuracy and utility.
- The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) simulates health, mortality, and economic outcomes for the US population, focusing on cardiovascular disease and related chronic diseases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the validity of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).
- To establish confidence in PRISM's accuracy for simulating public health intervention outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Applied the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and Society for Medical Decision Making validation framework.
- Included external expert review and quantitative data comparison against surveillance data.
Main Results:
- External experts confirmed PRISM is based on current science.
- Sensitivity analysis indicated minimal parameter impact (≤5%).
- PRISM projections align with surveillance data trends after recalibration of four measures.
Conclusions:
- PRISM is a validated and useful tool for simulating public health intervention effects and costs.
- PRISM can support community health program planning and evaluation efforts.
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