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Validation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).

Benjamin Yarnoff^1,2, Amanda Honeycutt¹, Christina Bradley¹

¹RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

Preventing Chronic Disease

|February 5, 2021

Summary

The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) is a valid tool for public health. This system dynamics model accurately simulates health outcomes and supports intervention planning.

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Area of Science:

Public health simulation modeling
System dynamics modeling
Health economics and outcomes research

Background:

Validating public health models builds confidence in their accuracy and utility.
The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) simulates health, mortality, and economic outcomes for the US population, focusing on cardiovascular disease and related chronic diseases.

Purpose of the Study:

To evaluate the validity of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM).
To establish confidence in PRISM's accuracy for simulating public health intervention outcomes.

Main Methods:

Applied the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and Society for Medical Decision Making validation framework.
Included external expert review and quantitative data comparison against surveillance data.

Main Results:

External experts confirmed PRISM is based on current science.
Sensitivity analysis indicated minimal parameter impact (≤5%).
PRISM projections align with surveillance data trends after recalibration of four measures.

Conclusions:

PRISM is a validated and useful tool for simulating public health intervention effects and costs.
PRISM can support community health program planning and evaluation efforts.