Analysis of risk factors and construction of prediction model of drop out from peritoneal dialysis

Li Li1,2, Hualian Pei3, Zhenhui Liu4

  • 1Department of Nephrology.

Medicine
|February 6, 2021
PubMed

Insights

Higher education, diabetes, hypertension, and complications like peritonitis increase peritoneal dialysis dropout risk. More hospitalizations after catheterization may protect against discontinuation.

Area of Science:

  • Nephrology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a crucial renal replacement therapy.
  • Understanding dropout factors is vital for patient management and therapy longevity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify independent risk factors associated with discontinuation of peritoneal dialysis.
  • To develop a predictive model for PD dropout.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 377 patients undergoing PD catheterization from 2009-2019.
  • Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards modeling.
  • Nomogram construction for dropout probability prediction.

Main Results:

  • The overall PD dropout rate was 41.38%.
  • Independent risk factors for dropout included higher education level, diabetes, hypertension, repeated peritonitis, and repeated chest complications.
  • Increased hospitalizations post-catheterization showed a protective effect (HR: 0.94).
  • The prediction model achieved a C-index of 0.74.

Conclusions:

  • Higher education, diabetes, hypertension, and recurrent complications are significant risk factors for PD cessation.
  • Frequent hospitalizations after PD catheterization may indicate better PD maintenance.
  • The developed nomogram offers a tool for predicting PD dropout probability.

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