Related Experiment Video
Updated: Nov 18, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
Unintended Consequences: Ambiguity Neglect and Policy Ineffectiveness
Lorán Chollete1, Sharon G Harrison2
1Welch College of Business and Technology, Fairfield, CT USA.
Policymakers face uncertainty when introducing new policies because citizen choices are unknown. To avoid unintended consequences, policymakers should first understand citizen preferences before implementing novel policies.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Public Policy Analysis
- Decision Theory
Background:
- Novel policy implementation introduces inherent ambiguity regarding citizen choices and their alignment with policy goals.
- Policymakers may neglect this ambiguity, assuming fixed citizen behavior, leading to unintended consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the ambiguity inherent in novel policy implementation.
- To identify the risks of ambiguity neglect for policymakers.
- To propose a method for mitigating unintended consequences.
Main Methods:
- The study provides illustrative examples of policy implementation scenarios.
- A simple formalization is used to model the policymaker's decision-making under ambiguity.
- The concept of ambiguity neglect is explored in the context of citizen choice formation.
Main Results:
- Policymakers cannot predict citizen choices or the probability of policy alignment under novel policies.
- Assuming fixed citizen behavior can lead to significant unintended consequences due to ambiguity neglect.
- Eliciting citizen preferences prior to policy introduction is crucial.
Conclusions:
- Novel policies inherently involve ambiguity regarding citizen behavior and policy outcomes.
- Policymakers must address ambiguity neglect by understanding potential citizen choices.
- Proactive elicitation of citizen preferences is recommended to improve novel policy design and implementation.
More Related Videos
05:22Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies
Published on: May 9, 2019
08:05A Prediction Error-driven Retrieval Procedure for Destabilizing and Rewriting Maladaptive Reward Memories in Hazardous Drinkers
Published on: January 5, 2018
Related Concept Videos
Hindsight Biases
Cause and Effect
Frustration and Conflict: Avoidance-Avoidance, Double-Approach Avoidance
Fundamental Attribution Error
Confounding in Epidemiological Studies
Social Traps