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Association Between Coffee Intake and Incident Heart Failure Risk: A Machine Learning Analysis of the FHS, the ARIC
Laura M Stevens1,2, Erik Linstead3, Jennifer L Hall2
1Computational Bioscience Program, Department of Pharmacology (L.M.S.), University of Colorado Anschutz Medical School, Aurora.
Insights
Higher coffee consumption is linked to a lower long-term risk of heart failure (HF). This finding, observed across multiple large studies, suggests coffee may be a modifiable factor for cardiovascular health.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular epidemiology
- Nutritional science
- Machine learning in healthcare
Background:
- Coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke are complex cardiovascular diseases with known risk factors.
- Identifying novel risk factors can enhance risk assessment and adherence to prevention strategies.
- This study investigated dietary and behavioral factors within the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), Cardiovascular Heart Study (CHS), and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify potential lifestyle and behavioral risk factors for CHD, HF, and stroke.
- To explore the role of diet in cardiovascular disease development.
- To validate findings across multiple large-scale cohort studies.
Main Methods:
- Machine learning (random forest) was employed for feature selection in the FHS cohort.
- Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to assess variable significance.
- Identified risk factors were validated in the CHS and ARIC study populations.
Main Results:
- Multiple dietary and behavioral factors, including marital status and consumption of red meat, whole milk, and coffee, were associated with cardiovascular disease outcomes.
- Increased coffee consumption demonstrated a consistent association with a decreased long-term risk of heart failure across all three cohorts (FHS, ARIC, CHS).
Conclusions:
- Higher coffee intake is associated with a reduced risk of heart failure.
- Coffee consumption may represent a potential modifiable risk factor for heart failure.
- Further research is needed to elucidate the causal relationship and underlying mechanisms of coffee's effect on HF risk.
Background:
Coronary heart disease, heart failure (HF), and stroke are complex diseases with multiple phenotypes. While many risk factors for these diseases are well known, investigation of as-yet unidentified risk factors may improve risk assessment and patient adherence to prevention guidelines. We investigated the diet domain in FHS (Framingham Heart Study), CHS (Cardiovascular Heart Study), and the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) to identify potential lifestyle and behavioral factors associated with coronary heart disease, HF, and stroke.
Methods:
We used machine learning feature selection based on random forest analysis to identify potential risk factors associated with coronary heart disease, stroke, and HF in FHS. We evaluated the significance of selected variables using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis adjusted for known cardiovascular risks. Findings from FHS were then validated using CHS and ARIC.
Results:
We identified multiple dietary and behavioral risk factors for cardiovascular disease outcomes including marital status, red meat consumption, whole milk consumption, and coffee consumption. Among these dietary variables, increasing coffee consumption was associated with decreasing long-term risk of HF congruently in FHS, ARIC, and CHS.
Conclusions:
Higher coffee intake was found to be associated with reduced risk of HF in all three studies. Further study is warranted to better define the role, possible causality, and potential mechanism of coffee consumption as a potential modifiable risk factor for HF.
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