Association Between Coffee Intake and Incident Heart Failure Risk: A Machine Learning Analysis of the FHS, the ARIC

Laura M Stevens1,2, Erik Linstead3, Jennifer L Hall2

  • 1Computational Bioscience Program, Department of Pharmacology (L.M.S.), University of Colorado Anschutz Medical School, Aurora.

Insights

Higher coffee consumption is linked to a lower long-term risk of heart failure (HF). This finding, observed across multiple large studies, suggests coffee may be a modifiable factor for cardiovascular health.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiovascular epidemiology
  • Nutritional science
  • Machine learning in healthcare

Background:

  • Coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke are complex cardiovascular diseases with known risk factors.
  • Identifying novel risk factors can enhance risk assessment and adherence to prevention strategies.
  • This study investigated dietary and behavioral factors within the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), Cardiovascular Heart Study (CHS), and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify potential lifestyle and behavioral risk factors for CHD, HF, and stroke.
  • To explore the role of diet in cardiovascular disease development.
  • To validate findings across multiple large-scale cohort studies.

Main Methods:

  • Machine learning (random forest) was employed for feature selection in the FHS cohort.
  • Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to assess variable significance.
  • Identified risk factors were validated in the CHS and ARIC study populations.

Main Results:

  • Multiple dietary and behavioral factors, including marital status and consumption of red meat, whole milk, and coffee, were associated with cardiovascular disease outcomes.
  • Increased coffee consumption demonstrated a consistent association with a decreased long-term risk of heart failure across all three cohorts (FHS, ARIC, CHS).

Conclusions:

  • Higher coffee intake is associated with a reduced risk of heart failure.
  • Coffee consumption may represent a potential modifiable risk factor for heart failure.
  • Further research is needed to elucidate the causal relationship and underlying mechanisms of coffee's effect on HF risk.
Abstract

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