Prediction of AESD and neurological sequelae in febrile status epilepticus

The clinical prediction rule (CPR) for acute encephalopathy with biphasic seizures and late reduced diffusion (AESD) was developed with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.95 - 0.96. Our objective was to verify the AESD CPR in a new cohort and compare the utilities of three CPRs of acute encephalopathy: the Tada, Yokochi, and Nagase criteria.

We reviewed the clinical data and medical charts of 580 consecutive patients (aged < 18 years) with febrile convulsive status epilepticus lasting for ≥ 30 min in 2002 - 2017 and measured the performance of the CPRs in predicting AESD and sequelae.

The CPRs predicted AESD with an AUC of 0.84 - 0.88. The Tada criteria predicted AESD with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.25 and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99. The Yokochi criteria predicted AESD with a PPV and NPV of 0.20 and 0.95, respectively, after 12 h. The Nagase criteria predicted AESD with a PPV and NPV of 0.14 and 1.00, respectively, after 6 h. The PPVs of the Tada, Yokochi, and Nagase criteria for sequelae were 0.28, 0.28, and 0.17, respectively; the corresponding NPVs were 0.97, 0.95, and 0.98, respectively.

The effectiveness of the AESD CPR in a new cohort was lower than that in the derivation study. CPRs are not sufficient as diagnostic tests, but they are useful as screening tests. The Nagase criteria are the most effective for screening among the three CPRs due to their high NPV and swiftness.