Estimating the burden of type 2 diabetes in the UK prison environment for the next decade

Although limited, global evidence suggests that the cardiometabolic health of those in prison is poorer than their community peers. Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a public health challenge and community rates are continuing to rise. Given that cardiometabolic risk factors are prevalent amongst younger individuals within the prison population, it is reasonable to assume that the prison environment will also experience an increase in new cases of T2DM. Therefore, the aim of this study was, to predict in a current prison population, how many potential new cases of T2DM could develop in the next 10 years. This study used health data collected from a prison sample (n = 299) aged 25-84 years in HMP Parc, UK, and the Diabetes UK Risk Score was used to predict T2DM risk. In terms of projecting new cases, it was estimated that in the next decade 6.4 individuals per 100 would develop T2DM, and this value increased to 16.4 individuals per 100 in those aged 50 years and older. The development of new cases across all age groups is a concern, and it appears that the prison community are a 'target population' for prevention opportunities.