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Diagnostic accuracy of physician's gestalt in suspected COVID-19: Prospective bicentric study
Peiman Nazerian1, Fulvio Morello2,3, Alessio Prota1
1Department of Emergency Medicine, Careggi University Hospital, Firenze, Italy.
Insights
Physician gestalt, incorporating clinical findings and bedside imaging, shows fair accuracy in diagnosing COVID-19. Combining clinical and imaging gestalt with RT-PCR testing improves diagnostic sensitivity for COVID-19.
Area of Science:
- Emergency Medicine
- Infectious Diseases
- Diagnostic Accuracy
Background:
- Physician gestalt is crucial for diagnosing COVID-19 due to the lack of a single definitive test.
- Accurate diagnosis in the emergency department (ED) is vital for timely patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of physician gestalt for COVID-19 in the ED.
- To compare gestalt based on clinical findings alone versus clinical findings integrated with bedside imaging.
Main Methods:
- Prospective enrollment of patients with suspected COVID-19 in two EDs.
- Physicians assessed likelihood of COVID-19 using clinical gestalt (CG) and clinical and bedside imaging-integrated gestalt (CBIIG).
- Final diagnosis adjudicated by 30-day follow-up data.
Main Results:
- Clinical gestalt (CG) and CBIIG demonstrated fair diagnostic accuracy (AUC 80.8% and 91.6%).
- CBIIG showed similar accuracy to RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 on initial testing.
- CBIIG combined with RT-PCR achieved higher sensitivity (98.4%) compared to CG plus RT-PCR (95.9%).
Conclusions:
- Physician gestalt, particularly CBIIG, offers valuable diagnostic information for suspected COVID-19.
- Negative RT-PCR results combined with low CBIIG probability can effectively rule out COVID-19.
- Integrating bedside imaging into physician gestalt enhances diagnostic performance in the ED.
Objectives:
Physicians' gestalt is central in the diagnostic pipeline of suspected COVID-19, due to the absence of a single tool allowing conclusive rule in or rule out. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic test characteristics of physician's gestalt for COVID-19 in the emergency department (ED), based on clinical findings or on a combination of clinical findings and bedside imaging results.
Methods:
From April 1 to April 30, 2020, patients with suspected COVID-19 were prospectively enrolled in two EDs. Physicians prospectively dichotomized patients in COVID-19 likely or unlikely twice: after medical evaluation of clinical features (clinical gestalt [CG]) and after evaluation of clinical features and results of lung ultrasound or chest x-ray (clinical and bedside imaging-integrated gestalt [CBIIG]). The final diagnosis was adjudicated after independent review of 30-day follow-up data.
Results:
Among 838 ED enrolled patients, 193 (23%) were finally diagnosed with COVID-19. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of CG and CBIIG for COVID-19 were 80.8% and 91.6% (p < 0.01), 82.9% and 91.4% (p = 0.01), and 78.6% and 91.8% (p < 0.01), respectively. CBIIG had similar AUC and sensitivity to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for SARS-CoV-2 on the first nasopharyngeal swab per se (93.5%, p = 0.24; and 87%, p = 0.17, respectively). CBIIG plus RT-PCR had a sensitivity of 98.4% for COVID-19 (p < 0.01 vs. RT-PCR alone) compared to 95.9% for CG plus RT-PCR (p = 0.05).
Conclusions:
In suspected COVID-19, CG and CBIIG have fair diagnostic accuracy, in line with physicians' gestalt for other acute conditions. Negative RT-PCR plus low probability based on CBIIG can rule out COVID-19 with a relatively low number of false-negative cases.
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