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Multi-Horizon Air Pollution Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks.

Mirche Arsov1, Eftim Zdravevski1, Petre Lameski1

  • 1Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, 1000 Skopje, North Macedonia.

Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|February 13, 2021
PubMed
Summary

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This study uses Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models to predict PM10 air pollution levels in Skopje. The advanced models accurately forecast pollution, outperforming traditional methods for better environmental management.

Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Computer Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Air pollution is a critical global issue, particularly severe in urban centers like Skopje, North Macedonia.
  • Skopke frequently ranks among the world's most polluted cities, especially during winter, due to high population density and diverse emission sources.
  • Effective air quality management requires accurate, short-term pollution forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate advanced deep learning models for predicting PM10 particle concentrations.
  • To assess the efficacy of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models with long short-term memory (LSTM) units for air quality forecasting.
  • To compare the performance of these novel models against traditional statistical methods like ARIMA.

Main Methods:

Keywords:
LSTMRNNair pollutionconvolutional networksdeep learning

Related Experiment Videos

  • Utilized historical air quality data from sensors across Skopje.
  • Incorporated meteorological data, including temperature and humidity, as input features.
  • Implemented and compared various deep learning architectures, focusing on RNN-LSTM, against an Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) baseline model.
  • Predicted PM10 levels at 6, 12, and 24-hour future intervals.
  • Main Results:

    • The proposed deep learning models, particularly RNN-LSTM, demonstrated superior performance in predicting PM10 levels compared to the ARIMA model.
    • The models consistently achieved higher accuracy in forecasting air pollution.
    • The predictive capabilities were validated across multiple future time horizons (6, 12, and 24 hours).

    Conclusions:

    • Recurrent Neural Network models with LSTM units are effective tools for accurate PM10 air pollution prediction in urban environments.
    • These advanced models offer a significant improvement over traditional methods for air quality forecasting.
    • The findings support the use of these predictive models to aid decision-makers in implementing proactive air pollution management strategies.