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Related Experiment Video

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Predicting Delirium Risk Using an Automated Mayo Delirium Prediction Tool: Development and Validation of a

Sandeep R Pagali1, Donna Miller1, Karen Fischer2

  • 1Division of Hospital Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; Division of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN.

Mayo Clinic Proceedings
|February 14, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

A new tool, the Mayo Delirium Prediction (MDP) tool, accurately predicts hospital admission delirium risk in patients aged 50 and older. This automated tool shows reliable performance across diverse patient groups.

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Area of Science:

  • Geriatric Medicine
  • Clinical Prediction Tools
  • Patient Safety

Background:

  • Delirium is a common and serious complication in hospitalized older adults.
  • Accurate prediction of delirium risk at admission is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate an automated delirium risk-prediction tool applicable across diverse patient populations.
  • To predict the risk of delirium upon hospital admission.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 120,764 patients aged 50+ admitted to Mayo Clinic.
  • Development of the Mayo Delirium Prediction (MDP) tool using LASSO penalized logistic regression on a derivation cohort (n=80,000).
  • Validation of the MDP tool on an independent cohort (n=40,764).

Main Results:

  • The MDP tool demonstrated strong predictive performance with an AUROC of 0.85 in the derivation cohort and 0.84 in the validation cohort.
  • Patients were categorized into low (≤5%), moderate (6-29%), and high (≥30%) risk groups, with observed delirium incidences aligning with predictions in both cohorts.
  • The tool showed consistent accuracy across a large, heterogeneous patient population.

Conclusions:

  • The Mayo Delirium Prediction tool is a reliable automated method for predicting delirium risk in hospitalized patients.
  • The tool's applicability across diverse patient groups supports its potential for widespread clinical use.
  • Further prospective validation studies are recommended to confirm these findings.