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A framework for probabilistic weather forecast post-processing across models and lead times using machine learning.
Charlie Kirkwood1, Theo Economou1, Henry Odbert2
1College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
This study introduces a machine learning framework to combine multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The method generates well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for improved decision-making in weather forecasting.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology
- Machine Learning
- Data Science
Background:
- Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasing in complexity and number.
- Combining forecasts from multiple NWP models with unique biases presents a challenge for operational meteorologists.
- There is a need for well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for effective decision support.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate a machine learning framework for post-processing weather forecasts from multiple NWP models.
- To bridge the gap between raw NWP model outputs and decision-support-ready probabilistic forecasts.
- To improve the calibration and utility of weather forecasts for stakeholders.
Main Methods:
- A three-stage machine learning framework was developed.
- Quantile regression forests were used to learn individual NWP model error profiles.
- Probabilistic forecasts were combined using quantile averaging and interpolated to form a predictive distribution.
Main Results:
- The framework effectively learns and corrects for individual model biases.
- Quantile averaging successfully combined probabilistic forecasts from different models.
- The generated predictive distribution demonstrated properties suitable for decision support.
Conclusions:
- The proposed machine learning framework offers an effective and operationally viable method for cohesive post-processing of weather forecasts.
- This approach yields well-calibrated probabilistic outputs across multiple models and lead times.
- The methodology enhances the usability of weather forecasts for critical decision-making.