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COVID-19, the Yule-Simpson paradox and research evaluation
Zhiqi Wang1, Ronald Rousseau2,3
1WISE Lab, Institute of Science of Science and S&T Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, People's Republic of China.
Scientometrics
|February 15, 2021
Summary
The Yule-Simpson paradox can reverse research comparison outcomes when groups merge. Awareness of this statistical phenomenon is crucial for accurate scientometric studies and research evaluation to prevent unexpected results.
Area of Science:
- Bibliometrics
- Scientometrics
- Research Evaluation
Background:
- The Yule-Simpson paradox describes how aggregated data can reverse observed trends compared to subgroup data.
- This statistical phenomenon has implications for interpreting comparative studies across different fields.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the prevalence of the Yule-Simpson paradox in international citation analysis.
- To assess the impact of this paradox on research evaluation metrics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Essential Sciences Indicators (ESI) data from InCites (Clarivate).
- Analyzed country-level citation data to identify instances of the Yule-Simpson phenomenon.
Main Results:
- The Yule-Simpson paradox is not common but occurs with some frequency in citation analysis.
- Findings indicate that the paradox is a relevant consideration in research evaluation.
Conclusions:
- Researchers and evaluators should be aware of the Yule-Simpson paradox.
- Failing to account for this phenomenon can lead to misinterpretations in scientometric research.
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