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Self-isolation
Dominique Baril-Tremblay1, Chantal Marlats2, Lucie Ménager2
1Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1, France.
Journal of Mathematical Economics
|February 15, 2021
Summary
Individuals strategically balance social interaction and self-isolation when facing infectious diseases. The unique equilibrium shows partial self-isolation, informing public health policies for epidemics like COVID-19.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Behavioral Economics
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Infectious disease spread is influenced by individual behavior.
- Asymptomatic transmission poses challenges for disease control.
- Individuals' decisions to isolate depend on perceived risk and type.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model strategic self-isolation in infectious disease dynamics.
- To analyze the impact of asymptomatic and severe disease types on social interaction.
- To identify equilibrium behavior and inform public policy.
Main Methods:
- Game theory framework to model individual decision-making.
- Analysis of strategic interaction between self-interested agents.
- Calibration to COVID-19 data and simulation of epidemic dynamics.
Main Results:
- All equilibria involve some level of social interaction.
- A unique equilibrium with partial self-isolation at each time step was identified.
- Model simulations illustrate the effects of different public policies.
Conclusions:
- Individual strategic choices significantly shape epidemic trajectories.
- Understanding the tradeoff between interaction and isolation is crucial for managing infectious diseases.
- The model provides insights into policy interventions for pandemics.
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