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Self-isolation

Dominique Baril-Tremblay¹, Chantal Marlats², Lucie Ménager²

¹Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1, France.

Journal of Mathematical Economics

|February 15, 2021

Abstract:

We analyze the spread of an infectious disease in a population when individuals strategically choose how much time to interact with others. Individuals are either of the severe type or of the asymptomatic type. Only severe types have symptoms when they are infected, and the asymptomatic types can be contagious without knowing it. In the absence of any symptoms, individuals do not know their type and continuously tradeoff the costs and benefits of self-isolation on the basis of their belief of being the severe type. We show that all equilibria of the game involve social interaction, and we characterize the unique equilibrium in which individuals partially self-isolate at each date. We calibrate our model to the COVID-19 pandemic and simulate the dynamics of the epidemic to illustrate the impact of some public policies.

Keywords:

COVID-19 epidemic SIR model Self-isolation

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Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Corrigendum to "Self-isolation" [J. Math. Econom. 93 (2021) 102483].

Journal of mathematical economics·2022

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