Evaluating coral reef ecosystem services outcomes from climate change adaptation strategies using integrative system...

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Environmental economics
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Coral reefs are vital for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), providing essential ecological, economic, and cultural services.
• These ecosystems face increasing threats from global and local human activities.
• Assessing the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on coral reefs and their services is critical for SIDS.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an integrated dynamic assessment framework for evaluating coral reef conditions.
• To assess the economic impacts of different climate change and adaptation scenarios on coral reef ecosystem services.
• To model these impacts for the Port Resolution community in Vanuatu through to 2070.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a sequential, multilayered modeling approach combining System Dynamics (SD) and Bayesian Network (BN) modeling.
• Employed BN to incorporate expert knowledge and existing data for projecting future coral reef conditions under various scenarios.
• Used SD to simulate the dynamic relationship between coral reef health and economic benefits from ecosystem services.

Main Results:

• Sustainable community-based conservation management is key to preserving coral reef ecosystem services under climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 6.0).
• An integrated portfolio of management strategies effectively protects ecosystem services and maximizes long-term economic benefits.
• Initial capital investments and restrictions on fishing and tourism may lead to temporary short-term economic losses.

Conclusions:

• Integrated and sustainable management strategies are essential for the long-term viability of coral reef ecosystems and the communities dependent on them.
• Dynamic assessment frameworks combining SD and BN modeling are effective tools for evaluating complex socio-environmental systems.
• Policy interventions must consider both ecological preservation and economic sustainability for effective coral reef management in SIDS.