A surrogate FRAX model for Pakistan.

Area of Science:

• Osteoporosis research
• Public health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• FRAX® models are crucial for assessing fracture risk but are unavailable for many countries.
• Developing surrogate FRAX® models is recommended when country-specific fracture data is limited.
• This study addresses the need for a Pakistan-specific fracture risk assessment tool.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and characterize a surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan.
• To estimate the burden of hip fractures in Pakistan.

Main Methods:

• Constructed a surrogate FRAX® model using age-specific hip fracture rates from Indians in Singapore.
• Incorporated age-specific mortality rates from Pakistan.
• Validated the model's correlation with existing fracture probability data.

Main Results:

• The surrogate model yielded slightly lower 10-year fracture probabilities compared to the Singaporean Indian model.
• High correlation (r ≥ 0.998) was observed between the surrogate and authentic models.
• An estimated 36,524 hip fractures occurred in Pakistan in 2015, projected to rise by 214% by 2050.

Conclusions:

• The developed surrogate FRAX® model for Pakistan enables fracture probability assessment.
• This tool can inform clinical decisions and guide osteoporosis treatment strategies in Pakistan.
• The model highlights a significant projected increase in hip fractures in Pakistan.