Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 17, 2025

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
10:46

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data

Published on: December 9, 2015

10.8K

Forecasting the incidence of mumps in Chongqing based on a SARIMA model

Hongfang Qiu1, Han Zhao2, Haiyan Xiang1

  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.

BMC Public Health
|February 18, 2021
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Mumps outbreaks in Chongqing show a clear seasonal pattern, with over 159,000 cases reported between 2004-2018. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model accurately predicts future mumps incidence.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Mumps is a Class C infectious disease in China, with Chongqing experiencing high incidence rates.
  • Understanding mumps seasonality is crucial for effective risk management and resource allocation in public health.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a predictive model for mumps incidence in Chongqing.
  • To analyze the seasonal trends of mumps in the region.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized mumps incidence data from Chongqing (2004-2018).
  • Employed a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for time series analysis and prediction.
  • Validated the model using 2018 data and assessed fit with RMSE and MAPE.

Main Results:

  • A total of 159,181 mumps cases were reported from 2004-2018, predominantly in males and individuals aged 0-19 (92.41%).
  • Students constituted the largest affected group (62.83%).
  • The SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 model demonstrated the best fit, with low error metrics (RMSE=0.9950, MAPE=39.84%).

Conclusions:

  • Mumps incidence in Chongqing exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern.
  • The SARIMA model provides a reliable and straightforward method for predicting mumps outbreaks in Chongqing.
  • This predictive capability supports public health planning and intervention strategies.
Keywords:
ChongqingIncidenceMumpsSARIMA model

More Related Videos

A New Hybrid Quantitative Evaluation Model for Axillary Junctional Hemorrhage in Swine08:27

A New Hybrid Quantitative Evaluation Model for Axillary Junctional Hemorrhage in Swine

Published on: December 6, 2024

478
Generating a Reproducible Model of Mid-Gestational Maternal Immune Activation using PolyI:C to Study Susceptibility and Resilience in Offspring09:09

Generating a Reproducible Model of Mid-Gestational Maternal Immune Activation using PolyI:C to Study Susceptibility and Resilience in Offspring

Published on: August 17, 2022

2.0K

Related Concept Videos

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
330
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data01:25

Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data

Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
712
Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms-SNPs01:05

Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms-SNPs

A single nucleotide polymorphism or SNP is a single nucleotide variation at a specific genomic position in a large population. It is the most prevalent type of sequence variation found in the human genome. Point mutations that occur in more than 1% of the population qualify as SNPs. These are present once every 1000 nucleotides on an average in the human genome. Replacement of a purine with another purine (A/G) or a pyrimidine with another pyrimidine (C/T) is known as a transition. In contrast,...
17.3K
Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation01:22

Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation

In practice, we rarely know the population standard deviation. In the past, when the sample size was large, this did not present a problem to statisticians. They used the sample standard deviation s as an estimate for σ and proceeded as before to calculate a confidence interval with close enough results. However, statisticians ran into problems when the sample size was small. A small sample size caused inaccuracies in the confidence interval.
William S. Gosset (1876–1937) of the...
8.5K