Long-term prognosis after intracerebral haemorrhage

The aim of this study was to determine the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), ischaemic stroke, all stroke, any vascular event and all-cause mortality in 30-day survivors of ICH, according to age and sex.

We linked national hospital discharge, population and cause of death registers to obtain a cohort of Dutch 30-day survivors of ICH from 1998 to 2010. We calculated cumulative incidences of recurrent ICH, ischaemic stroke, all stroke and composite vascular outcome, adjusted for competing risk of death and all-cause mortality. Additionally, we compared survival with the general population.

We included 19,444 ICH-survivors (52% male; median age 72 years, interquartile range 61-79; 78,654 patient-years of follow-up). First-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ICH ranged from 1.5% (95% confidence interval 0.9-2.3; men 35-54 years) to 2.4% (2.0-2.9; women 75-94 years). Depending on age and sex, 10-year risk of recurrent ICH ranged from 3.7% (2.6-5.1; men 35-54 years) to 8.1% (6.9-9.4; women 55-74 years); ischaemic stroke 2.6% to 7.0%, of all stroke 9.9% to 26.2% and of any vascular event 15.0% to 40.4%. Ten-year mortality ranged from 16.7% (35-54 years) to 90.0% (75-94 years). Relative survival was lower in all age-groups of both sexes, ranging from 0.83 (0.80-0.87) in 35- to 54-year-old men to 0.28 (0.24-0.32) in 75- to 94-year-old women.

ICH-survivors are at high risk of recurrent ICH, of ischaemic stroke and other vascular events, and have a sustained reduced survival rate compared to the general population.

The high risk of recurrent ICH, other vascular events and prolonged reduced survival-rates warrant clinical trials to determine optimal secondary prevention treatment after ICH.