Planning for health services for the elderly

In order to create health services that effectively respond to the changing picture of health, governments should try to anticipate the health needs for the future. The scenarios for the elderly that are briefly discussed in this paper are approximations of developments that are largely autonomous if considered from the position of the individuals and organizations responsible for policies on health and health services. The three contextual scenarios developed are based on the forecasts, explorations and speculations to be found in the literature and also on the outcome of discussions with groups of experts in the fields of medical, biological and technological research and practice. The following variables have been incorporated in the study preparing the scenarios: demographic developments, the health status of the elderly, health services for the elderly, developments in medical, biological and technological fields, and societal developments, both economic and social. These scenarios provide policy makers with a learning environment in which they can test the strategies that are considered to answer the questions that they face, and evaluate the particular circumstances in which these strategies might be feasible.