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Short-term prediction through ordinal patterns.

Yair Neuman1, Yochai Cohen2, Boaz Tamir3

  • 1Department of Cognitive and Brain Sciences and the Zlotowski Center for Neuroscience, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Organisms with limited cognitive resources can make short-term predictions using ordinal patterns. This study explores how these patterns, derived from physics, aid prediction in fluctuating environments like Bitcoin prices.

Keywords:
multidisciplinary cognitionnatural cognitionordinal patternsshort-term prediction

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Science
  • Physics
  • Computational Finance

Background:

  • Predicting in natural environments is difficult for organisms with limited data and cognitive capacity.
  • Understanding how bounded rationality influences short-term prediction strategies is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore ordinal patterns as a resource for short-term prediction in cognitively limited organisms.
  • To investigate the role of ordinal pattern types, transition probabilities, and irreversibility in prediction.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of ordinal patterns, a concept from physics, applied to cognitive processes.
  • Testing the predictive capability of ordinal patterns on a large Bitcoin price dataset.
  • Examining constraints such as pattern types, transition probabilities, and irreversibility signatures.

Main Results:

  • Ordinal patterns offer a viable mechanism for short-term prediction.
  • Natural constraints on ordinal patterns can support predictive capabilities.
  • Preliminary empirical evidence supports the use of ordinal patterns for prediction in fluctuating environments.

Conclusions:

  • Bounded rational organisms may leverage ordinal patterns for short-term prediction.
  • Ordinal patterns provide a novel framework for understanding cognitive prediction under constraints.
  • This approach offers insights into decision-making in complex, dynamic systems.