Dynamic spatio-temporal patterns of metapopulation occupancy in patchy habitats.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Science
• Hydrology

Background:

• Wetland connectivity and habitat suitability are crucial for biodiversity and species survival in patchy aquatic landscapes.
• Stochastic hydroclimatic forcing significantly influences wetland hydrology, but linking these effects to metapopulation dynamics remains challenging.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (D-SPOM) for simulating species occupancy in wetlandscapes.
• To integrate hydrological and ecological models within a climatic framework to study metapopulation shifts in response to climate change.
• To enhance understanding of how climate-driven changes in wetlandscapes affect biodiversity.

Main Methods:

• Developed a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (D-SPOM) integrating hydrological and ecological processes.
• Applied the D-SPOM framework to two contrasting US wetlandscapes.
• Simulated spatio-temporal patterns of species occupancy and habitat suitability.

Main Results:

• Explicitly considering the temporal dimension in D-SPOM is crucial for interpreting habitat suitability and metapopulation occupancy patterns.
• Spatio-temporal dynamics of patch suitability and accessibility, driven by hydroclimatic stochasticity, affect metapopulation occupancy and dispersal networks.
• Extended dry periods increase extinction risk by reducing suitable habitat, limiting colonization, and exacerbating metapopulation vulnerability.

Conclusions:

• The D-SPOM provides a robust framework for assessing metapopulation dynamics in dynamic wetlandscapes under changing climatic conditions.
• The model highlights the critical role of hydroclimatic variability in shaping species persistence and landscape connectivity.
• The D-SPOM framework is adaptable for studying metapopulation dynamics in various patchy habitats facing stochastic disturbances.