Flexible imitation suppresses epidemics through better vaccination

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Social Sciences
• Computational Biology

Background:

• Vaccination decisions balance personal health and public good (herd immunity).
• Social influence, personal experience, education, and media shape vaccination choices.
• Previous epidemic responses in social neighborhoods influence current vaccination decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model how individuals decide to vaccinate based on neighborhood responses to past epidemics.
• To explore the impact of adaptive decision-making strategies on vaccine uptake and epidemic severity.

Main Methods:

• A minimalistic model integrating game theory, network theory, epidemic modeling, and opinion dynamics.
• Simulating individual choices based on neighborhood majority or best-performing neighbor.
• Incorporating learning mechanisms for individuals to adapt their decision strategies.

Main Results:

• Individual flexibility in integrating neighborhood information enhances vaccine uptake.
• Increased flexibility leads to reduced epidemic severity under specific conditions.
• Optimal conditions include limited initial imitation of the majority and sufficiently long memory of past outbreaks.

Conclusions:

• Adaptive social learning strategies can improve vaccination campaign effectiveness.
• Understanding social network dynamics is crucial for public health interventions.
• Findings inform strategies for novel vaccine acceptance and public health awareness campaigns.