Medical school achievements as predictors of residency performance

In this study, the authors investigated the relationships between academic achievement in medical school and performance in first-year residency. The correlations between achievement measures and residency performance ratings were low but significant. A multiple regression equation using the residents' medical specialty and the academic variables accounted for one-quarter of the variance in residency ratings. Additional analyses indicated that the residents rated as "outstanding" consistently performed better on the National Board of Medical Examiners' examinations than the residents rated as "below average." However, other factors were not found to distinguish consistently among the residents when they were grouped into four categories on the basis of overall residency performance. These results support the consideration of academic variables in the residency selection process. However, their use as a single selection factor or as a method of screening out applicants from further consideration is, at best, justified only in the case of extremely high or low medical school achievement.