Microbial Functional Responses Explain Alpine Soil Carbon Fluxes under Future Climate Scenarios

Soil microorganisms are sensitive to temperature in cold ecosystems, but it remains unclear how microbial responses are modulated by other important climate drivers, such as precipitation changes. Here, we examine the effects of six in situ warming and/or precipitation treatments in alpine grasslands on microbial communities, plants, and soil carbon fluxes. These treatments differentially affected soil carbon fluxes, gross primary production, and microbial communities. Variations of soil CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes across all sites significantly (r > 0.70, P < 0.050) correlated with relevant microbial functional abundances but not bacterial or fungal abundances. Given tight linkages between microbial functional traits and ecosystem functionality, we conclude that future soil carbon fluxes in alpine grasslands can be predicted by microbial carbon-degrading capacities.IMPORTANCE The warming pace in the Tibetan Plateau, which is predominantly occupied by grassland ecosystems, has been 0.2°C per decade in recent years, dwarfing the rate of global warming by a factor of 2. Many Earth system models project substantial carbon sequestration in Tibet, which has been observed. Here, we analyzed microbial communities under projected climate changes by 2100. As the soil "carbon pump," the growth and activity of microorganisms can largely influence soil carbon dynamics. However, microbial gene response to future climate scenarios is still obscure. We showed that the abundances of microbial functional genes, but not microbial taxonomy, were correlated with carbon fluxes and ecosystem multifunctionality. By identifying microbial traits linking to ecosystem functioning, our results can guide the assessment of future soil carbon fluxes in alpine grasslands, a critical step toward mitigating climate changes.