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Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield.

Xuhui Wang1, Christoph Müller2, Joshua Elliot3,4

  • 1Sino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China. xuhui.wang@pku.edu.cn.

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|February 24, 2021
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Irrigation boosts global wheat and maize yields by 34% and 22% respectively. However, many rainfed areas lack sufficient water for irrigation, questioning its role in mitigating climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Hydrology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Irrigation is the largest human water consumer and crucial for crop production.
  • Uncertainty exists regarding irrigation's global contribution to crop yields and drought mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the global contribution of irrigation to wheat and maize yields.
  • To assess the feasibility of irrigation expansion given water availability.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a Bayesian framework integrating empirical data and global crop models.
  • Created maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yields (ΔY).
  • Compared irrigation water demands with renewable water supply.

Main Results:

  • Global ΔY is 34% ± 9% for wheat and 22% ± 13% for maize.
  • Spatial yield differences are primarily driven by precipitation patterns.
  • 30-47% of current rainfed wheat and maize agriculture cannot close yield gaps with existing river discharge.

Conclusions:

  • Irrigation significantly increases wheat and maize yields globally.
  • Water scarcity limits the potential for irrigation to expand and close yield gaps.
  • The capacity of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts is questionable due to water constraints.