Related Experiment Video
Updated: Nov 16, 2025

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
The pattern and trend of COVID-19 spread in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: curve-fitting models estimation
Mohannad Abed Alfattah Al Nsour1, Yousef Saleh Khader2, Haitham Majed Nazzal1
1Global Health Development/Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network, Jordan.
Introduction:
This study aimed to use the Curve Estimation Procedure to assess the pattern and trend of COVID-19 spread in the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by finding the model best fit for the observed COVID-19 data in each country between 20 February 2020-21 April 2020.
Methods:
The number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, recovered cases, and during the period 20 February 2020-21 April 2020 in 21 countries in EMR were extracted from the WHO situation reports. The Curve Estimation procedure was used to produce different curve estimation regression models for the observed data in each country.
Results:
During this observed period, the total number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths in the region were 138673, 71343, and 6291, respectively. The overall fatality rate in the region was 4.5%. The quadratic model and the cubic model follows the observed data points fairly well during the observed time period in five and nine countries, respectively. The exponential model (Y = b0 * (e**(b1 * t))), the growth model (Y = e**(b0 + (b1 * t))), and the compound model (Y = b0 * (b1**t)) were the best fit for data during the observed time period in two, three, and two countries, respectively.
Conclusion:
The pattern of COVID-19 spread differed between countries in the EMR. This might reflect the variations in testing and implementation of public health measures. The best curve-fitting model was demonstrated for each country and it can be used for very short-term predictions.
Related Concept Videos
Pareto Chart
The Pareto chart is named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who described the Pareto...
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Pie Chart
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Causality in Epidemiology

