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Models for Eco-Evolutionary Extinction Vortices under Balancing Selection.

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    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Evolutionary Biology
    • Population Genetics

    Background:

    • Small populations lose genetic diversity faster due to genetic drift.
    • Loss of genetic diversity can decrease population growth, increasing vulnerability and extinction risk.
    • Eco-evolutionary extinction vortices are driven by interactions between population size and genetic diversity.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop quantitative eco-evolutionary models for extinction vortices driven by loss of genetic diversity.
    • To identify conditions under which these vortices arise and how to detect them.
    • To explore the relationship between population size, genetic diversity, and extinction.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed stochastic individual-based simulations.
    • Employed deterministic approximations for eco-evolutionary dynamics.
    • Utilized mathematical analysis to link genetic diversity and population decline.

    Main Results:

    • Identified parameter combinations showing strong interactions between population size and genetic diversity.
    • Defined eco-evolutionary vortex criteria: increasing decline and fixation rates with decreasing population size and polymorphic loci.
    • Found classical early-warning signals have limited utility in detecting these vortices.

    Conclusions:

    • Quantitative models are crucial for understanding eco-evolutionary extinction vortices.
    • Specific interactions between population size and genetic diversity drive these vortices.
    • New detection methods may be needed as traditional signals are insufficient.