Changes in newly notified cases and control of tuberculosis in China: time-series analysis of surveillance data

China has made progress in tuberculosis control, but this disease remains a burden in many regions of China. We performed time-series analysis to examine changes in the rates of newly notified and newly smear-positive cases of tuberculosis in different regions of China from 1997 to 2018 and assessed the effect of the current control program.

National and provincial notification data on tuberculosis from 1997 to 2018, which covers 31 provinces in the mainland of China, were extracted from the Chinese public health science data center. The annual percentage changes in newly notified and smear-positive cases were analyzed using a joinpoint regression method.

There were 18 646 672 newly notified tuberculosis cases from 1997 to 2018, with the greatest number in 2005. A total of 6 605 414 of these cases (35.42%) were smear-positive cases. The number of newly notified cases in China overall decreased (96.88-59.27 cases per 100 000) significantly during the most recent years. The decline during this period ranged from -3.9% (95% CI -5.7 to -2.9) in the western region to -4.3% (95% CI -4.8 to -3.7) in the eastern region. Most provinces had significant declines in newly notified and smear-positive cases, whereas the decline of newly smear-positive cases in Xinjiang was about half of that observed during the same period in China overall (-4.1% vs -9.9%). In addition to disparities in annual percentage changes, the rate of newly notified cases was higher in the western region than in the eastern and central regions.

The burden of tuberculosis has been on declining throughout China during recent years, but tuberculosis in western China continues to be a public health emergency that needs to be urgently addressed. Effective prevention and control strategies are needed for regions with high disease burdens and those with increasing or unchanging numbers of newly notified and smear-positive cases of tuberculosis.